Stronger typhoons in China show the effects of an extreme El Niño - critical summary review

What El Niño is, and why it reaches so far

El Niño is a natural phenomenon that develops in the Pacific Ocean and is associated with a shift in wind patterns. That shift lets warm water advance eastward and release heat into the atmosphere — and from there it changes the weather thousands of kilometres away, bringing drought to some regions and heavier rain and stronger typhoons to others.

The World Meteorological Organization, a United Nations agency, says the current episode may be the strongest in more than 70 years and last at least until February 2027. "El Niño is taking on gigantic proportions before our eyes. Science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is entering unknown waters, and those waters are getting warmer," said António Guterres, the UN secretary-general.

The consequences are not only meteorological. The number of vessels allowed through the Panama Canal is being reduced on the forecast of less rain. Indonesia is fighting forest fires that have burned through a longer-than-usual dry season. In Brazil, the expectation is above-average temperatures across almost the whole country, with a higher chance of storms and flooding in the South and less rain in the North and Northeast. That is the backdrop against which the news of recent weeks arrives.

Seven typhoons in a single year

China expects seven typhoons to hit its territory this year alone, something experts in the country associate with the effects of an exceptionally intense El Niño. In July, typhoons Bavi, Noul and Maysak left dozens dead. In August, more than a million people had to leave their homes when typhoon Dolphin arrived with heavy rain and strong winds.

"We are already seeing disruption and devastation caused by droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies," said Celeste Saulo, secretary-general of the WMO.

That same season connects three announcements that, at first sight, have nothing to do with one another: a postponed lunar mission, container freight rates several times higher, and an alarm about the state of tyre manufacturing in Brazil.

A Moon probe loses its window

China's space programme suspended the launch of Chang'e-7, its robotic mission to the lunar south pole, hours before lift-off. In the way was a typhoon, Narra, over the region of the Wenchang launch centre on the island of Hainan.

The official wording was vague: "Based on the principles of prudence, reliability and absolute safety, and after a comprehensive assessment, the Chang'e-7 mission does not meet the launch requirements and cannot be carried out within the launch window scheduled for this year." One of the mission's international partners, the NARIT research institute in Thailand, has said there are no launch windows left this year. The flight slips to 2027.

The delay matters because there is a race under way. The mission — an orbiter, a lander, a rover and a hopper — was aimed at the surroundings of Shackleton crater, very close to the Moon's south geographic pole. So is the first flight of the American company Blue Origin, working for NASA with its Blue Moon Mark 1 lander. The American launch had been scheduled for the second half of this year, which would have put it there first; the explosion of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket in May at Cape Canaveral, in Florida, derailed those plans and pushed the lander's maiden flight to at least the first quarter of 2027.

Timing is not free here. The Chinese probe would land where sunlight lasts more than a hundred consecutive days, which matters for the landing manoeuvre, for surface operations and for the months of orbital sensing that were meant to precede them. The peak of illumination in that region would have come this November; the next one comes in November of the following year. Both countries, with international partners, intend to set up lunar bases — eventually crewed — at the south pole, and where exactly depends on these first missions.

Ships at anchor, freight rates multiplied

The same typhoons closed ports. Shanghai and Ningbo temporarily suspended operations as a safety measure, and more than 800 ships stayed at anchor waiting for favourable weather, according to figures tracked by ABIDIP, the Brazilian association of tyre importers and distributors. The pile-up produced delays in schedules, skipped port calls and difficulty for shipping lines in repositioning vessels and equipment.

The price followed. For shipments scheduled for the first week of September, the freight on a 40-foot container went from around US$3,000 to as much as US$9,500, depending on the carrier, on space being available and on the terms negotiated.

"Until a few weeks ago we were mainly discussing the price of freight. Now we have an additional concern: getting space and equipment to ship," said Ricardo Alípio, president of ABIDIP. "When you combine freight close to US$10,000, port congestion, ship delays and skipped calls, a concrete risk to the regularity of supply in the Brazilian market appears." The association expects September to bring tighter space on routes out of China, and more typhoons are forecast to reach port areas around Shenzhen, Ningbo and Shanghai.

What Brazil buys abroad

The threat of shortage falls on the replacement market — the tyres sold to drivers, resellers, fleets, hauliers and app drivers, rather than those fitted to new cars. That is where the country's reliance on imports becomes visible.

According to ANIP, the association of Brazil's tyre industry, manufacturers installed in the country accounted for about 70% of replacement sales in 2019. Today their share is close to 30%, with imported products dominating the market; in the first half of this year, imports grew 81.2%.

"Brazil needs to decide whether it wants a strong industry that generates jobs, income and investment and consumes local raw materials, or whether it prefers to export jobs to Asia," said Rodrigo Navarro, ANIP's president.

The association says the loss of ground already affects the tyre plants operating in Brazil, with collective holidays, temporary line stoppages and layoffs, and that the effect reaches suppliers of steel, chemicals, textiles and natural rubber — rubber growers have started replacing their groves with other crops. ANIP has asked the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services to raise the import tariff on passenger tyres from 25% to 35%, to bring back non-automatic import licensing, to adopt international reference prices against goods sold below the cost of raw materials, and to move faster on anti-dumping cases.

What to do with this information

The thing to watch in the coming weeks is how much of the freight increase reaches the final price of tyres, and whether it shows up as a price rise or as an empty shelf. ABIDIP itself projects tighter shipping space in September and points to three signals that will settle it: where freight rates go from here, how quickly Chinese port operations return to normal, and whether carriers manage to put their schedules back in order. Anyone about to replace tyres, or waiting on any other goods shipped from China, has reason to check prices and delivery dates before the August backlog works its way through.

The second thing to follow is what the federal government answers to ANIP's requests, especially the tariff increase and the return of non-automatic licensing. Whatever is decided will define the terms on which the country reaches the next stretch of this El Niño, which the WMO expects to last at least into 2027.

And the third is the lunar calendar. The next marker is whether Blue Origin manages to launch the Blue Moon Mark 1 in the first quarter of 2027, before China tries the Chang'e-7 again in the illumination window that opens in November of that year. Two space programmes, a shipping route and the price of a tyre are, this season, running on the same clock.